For America\u2019s friends in Asia, the uncertainty brought by the impending return of Donald Trump to the White House is coming at a bad time. <\/p>\n
China has been modernizing its military and nuclear arsenal while becoming increasingly aggressive in asserting territorial claims in the South China Sea and over Taiwan. North Korea has ramped up its belligerent rhetoric and calls to develop its illegal nuclear program. Both countries have expanded their alignment with Russia as it wages war on Ukraine, linking Asia to the shattered peace in Europe. <\/p>\n
For decades, the US has backed the security of its allies in the region, which has more overseas active-duty American troops than anywhere else in the world. Tens of thousands of soldiers are stationed on sprawling bases in treaty allies South Korea and Japan, countries that, like the Philippines and Australia, the US is bound to aid if they come under attack. <\/p>\n
Those countries are now preparing for the return of an American leader who has railed against what he sees as free-riding US allies who don\u2019t pay enough for defense, sidled up to autocrats, and called for an \u201cAmerica first\u201d approach to <\/strong>global obligations. <\/p>\n Many questions about Trump are on the minds of US-aligned leaders in Asia, observers across the region say. <\/p>\n Will Trump ask for more defense spending than allies can afford? Could he take an extreme step to withdraw US forces if any such demands aren\u2019t met? Will the businessman-turned-leader cut deals with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, North Korea\u2019s Kim Jong Un or Russia\u2019s Vladimir Putin that undermine the interests of US allies? <\/p>\n Alternatively, could he perhaps strengthen US alliances and be a tougher opponent for America\u2019s enemies? <\/p>\n In the shadow of this uncertainty, leaders across the region have been scrambling to forge strong ties with the notoriously mercurial incoming US commander-in-chief, who\u2019s known to link foreign policy to personal rapport. <\/p>\n Many are warily eyeing President-elect Trump\u2019s threat to ringfence the world\u2019s largest economy with 10% tariffs on all imports and upwards of 60% tariffs on goods from China, moves that could have significant economic knock-on effects across Asia. <\/p>\n But as Trump\u2019s January inauguration draws closer, governments across Asia are also facing potentially more existential questions about how Trump will manage US security relationships with friends and rivals \u2013 and stand by its allies if tested. <\/p>\n After World War II, a network of US alliances was established across the world to serve as a powerful deterrent against another global war. A major aim was to prevent more countries from becoming nuclear powers by placing them under the umbrella of the US arsenal. <\/p>\n In the eyes of many in Washington and across Asia, those alliances in Asia-Pacific have only become more critical as relationships in the region become more contentious. <\/p>\n China has expanded its security ties with NATO-adversary Russia and been accused of enabling Moscow\u2019s war by buying up Russian exports and providing the dual-use goods needed for its defense base. Beijing has also ramped up its intimidation of Taiwan, the self-ruling democracy it claims and has vowed to take control of, by force if necessary. <\/p>\n In the South China Sea, the China Coast Guard has in recent months attacked Philippine ships with water cannons and even axes, despite a major international ruling years ago denying its claim to the bulk of the strategically critical waterway. <\/p>\n North Korea, meanwhile, has ramped up its threats toward South Korea and the US as it carries out illegal weapons testing. It\u2019s also aiding Russia\u2019s war with ammunition, missiles, and \u2013 in a major, recent escalation \u2013 soldiers, US officials say. <\/p>\n But as Trump steps onto a more fraught and complex global stage than at the start of his first term eight years ago, observers in Asia say his focus appears to be on ratcheting up economic pressure on China rather than regional <\/strong>security. <\/p>\n Trump\u2019s \u201cpriority is overwhelmingly on the economic relationship and on the United States not losing to China economically,\u201d but there\u2019s little sign \u201cthat he is deeply interested in the military or strategic balance in East Asia,\u201d said Sam Roggeveen, director of the Lowy Institute\u2019s International Security Program in Sydney. <\/p>\n \u201cEverything points in the opposite direction,\u201d Roggeveen said. \u201cHe\u2019s interested in \u2013 sure \u2013 having a strong military and defending the United States \u2026 but not in this idea of America as an indispensable power which has a unique global security role.\u201d <\/p>\n The incoming leader and his strategists have instead repeatedly questioned whether the US was getting enough out of its alliances and whether American lives should be lost and dollars spent fighting foreign wars. <\/p>\n Trump shocked European leaders earlier this year by saying he would encourage Russia to do \u201cwhatever the hell they want\u201d to any NATO member country that doesn\u2019t meet the US-led alliance\u2019s defense spending guidelines. <\/p>\n Weeks before election day, Trump turned that spotlight toward Asia, claiming during an interview with Bloomberg News that were he president, South Korea would pay $10 billion a year to host US troops \u2014 about eight times more than Seoul and Washington recently agreed on. <\/p>\n South Korea already spends well over 2% of its gross domestic product on defense, considered by the US to be a benchmark for its allies. Over the past decade, the country has also paid 90% of the cost for expanding Camp Humphreys, the US\u2019 largest overseas base. <\/p>\n \u2018Indispensable power?\u2019<\/h2>\n
Preparing for Trump 2.0<\/h2>\n