Mark Carney has never been a politician. <\/p>\n
Yet now he\u2019s sworn in as Canada\u2019s new Prime Minister on Friday, he will face two of the most complex political challenges of any rookie world leader in years. <\/p>\n
First, he must win a general election that he\u2019s expected to call almost immediately to try to capitalize on his Liberal Party\u2019s revival after months in predecessor Justin Trudeau-inflicted doldrums. <\/p>\n
If he wins, his prize will be a dubious one \u2014 dealing with US President Donald Trump. Just ask Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was mauled in the Oval Office bear-pit, just how much fun that can be. <\/p>\n
Carney\u2019s elevation is a classic confluence of a man and a moment. <\/p>\n
But for Trump\u2019s election victory and unprecedented threats to make Canada the 51st state, Carney would probably still be a private citizen and the Liberals would be heading for oblivion. But Trudeau\u2019s resignation and a wave of patriotism swept up by Trump\u2019s attacks left Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, who was cruising towards the prime minister\u2019s office himself, flailing. <\/p>\n
Carney looks like a banker because he is one. He ran the central Banks of Canada and England, and he\u2019s billing himself as a pro who can manage the worst crisis in Canada-US relations for at least 40 years. He\u2019s an old school antidote to Poilievre, a talented young ideologue whose alliterative soundbites are a good fit for the social media age. But the Conservative leader has one glaring liability \u2014 he\u2019s a little too Trumpy \u2014 a factor that suddenly threatens to down his rising star. Populism was his route to power. Until it suddenly wasn\u2019t. <\/p>\n
Poilievre\u2019s problems and Carney\u2019s arrival hint at a nascent trend 50 days into the new US administration. Trump\u2019s return was widely seen as a harbinger of a second populist wave that would oust establishment figures all over the west. But a backlash against \u201cAmerica First\u201d mayhem has lifted leaders seeking to operate in the political middle \u2014 that once looked like fallow political ground. <\/p>\n
In Britain, Prime Minister Keir Starmer found fresh definition in the transatlantic tumult whipped up by Trump after a moribund start to his term that belied his landslide election win last year. His moving embrace of Zelensky after his disastrous visit to Washington was a show of independence from Trump and spoke for millions of Europeans. Starmer\u2019s leadership holds out the possibility of a new era of UK-EU relations following the bitterness of Brexit. Beleaguered French President Emmanuel Macron \u2014 whose government keeps collapsing \u2013 is reborn as a Gaullist visionary, vowing to rebuild Europe\u2019s military strength. And the rise of Germany\u2019s likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz put the country on a stunning course out of America\u2019s 80-year post-war tutelage moments after his general election victory last month. <\/p>\n
As leaders respond, far-right movements have been stalling. The anti-immigrant AfD did better than ever in Germany \u2014 but strong support from the Trump administration might have alienated some voters. The pro-Trump Reform party in the UK has been forced to distance itself from some Trump policies and the wild rhetoric of Elon Musk. French right-winger Marine Le Pen must be wondering whether antipathy to Trump could frustrate her National Rally\u2019s hopes for a long-awaited breakthrough in the next French presidential election in 2027. <\/p>\n
Macron and Starmer have evolved the classic how-to-deal-with Trump playbook. To self-demeaning flattery, they\u2019ve added personal steel. By correcting the president\u2019s falsehoods while in the Oval Office. Zelensky came a cropper when trying the same thing \u2014 but his stock soared back home at a time when Trump seems to be trying to oust him. And with the help of European leaders, he called Russia\u2019s bluff by agreeing to Trump\u2019s Ukraine ceasefire plan. <\/p>\n
But Carney has bigger problems. After all, Trump is not openly attacking British or French sovereignty. The new PM can\u2019t afford to ignore Canadians\u2019 fury. A cynic might argue that if he calls a snap election, it suits him for cross border tensions to last until voters go the polls. <\/p>\n
Carney must also recognize reality. If a full-bore trade war rages between the US and Canada, there will be only one winner. Or more accurately, given the damage wrought by tariffs \u2014 one biggest loser \u2013 since both nations will be hurt by an estrangement in one of the world\u2019s most lucrative trading relationships. To find a way out, Carney must ensure his campaign trail rhetoric doesn\u2019t close off an eventual settlement with Trump. <\/p>\n
The answers do not lie in Britain or France. They might be found in a speech by 91-year-old Jean Chr\u00e9tien, the former Canadian PM who stole the show at the Liberal convention in Ottawa last weekend. <\/p>\n
The old master waxed lyrical about his own confrontations with the US in a stirring defense of Canadian identify and patriotism. He peered into a camera and upbraided Trump: \u201cI can say this from one old guy to another old guy: \u2018Stop this nonsense. Canada will never join the United States.\u2019\u201d <\/p>\n
But amid fierce anti-Americanism, Chr\u00e9tien also kept alive the prospect of an eventual, and necessary rapprochement. \u201cWe have worked with and collaborated with the United States in the past, and I\u2019m telling you, we will do so in the future.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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