Turkish police have detained the strongest rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a move that experts say is aimed at removing all possible contenders ahead of the next presidential election and further stretching his rule. <\/p>\n
The Istanbul Mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, was detained as part of corruption and terror investigations in a move the opposition condemned as politically motivated. Some 100 others connected to the mayor were also detained, including elected Istanbul district mayors Resul Emrah Sahan and Murat Calik. <\/p>\n
The wave of arrests comes after a months-long crackdown on the opposition in Turkey. In November, Human Rights Watch lambasted Erdogan for removing several elected opposition mayors and replacing them with government-appointed ones. <\/p>\n
Murat Somer, politics professor at Ozyegin University in Istanbul, said the Istanbul mayor\u2019s detention was part of a political transformation Turkey is undergoing. <\/p>\n
Whether the opposition will be able to survive this effort is yet to be seen. <\/p>\n
Imamoglu said that he would not back down. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe are up against huge bullying,\u201d the two-time mayor said in a video filmed from his walk-in closet shortly before his arrest. \u201cBut I will not back down. I love you all. I entrust myself to the people. I will be standing tall,\u201d he said in the video that was posted Wednesday on X. <\/p>\n
In a separate message, Imamoglu\u2019s wife Dilek said that \u201cthose who do not want to lose in the next ballot box have made this move,\u201d referring to Erdogan and his camp. <\/p>\n
Imamoglu, one of Turkey\u2019s most popular political figures, was the major threat to Erdogan. <\/p>\n
Erdogan extended his rule into a third decade after winning a knife-edge presidential election in 2023, securing a second term. His party did not, however, secure the key city of Istanbul, where he was mayor before becoming president, which remains in the hands of his rival Imamoglu and the main opposition Republican People\u2019s Party (CHP). <\/p>\n
After winning a second term, Erdogan was bent on taking back the city in March 2024 municipal elections, which saw Imamoglu again emerge victorious by 51.14% of the vote, beating Erdogan\u2019s Justice and Development Party (AK Party) candidate. He had been elected Istanbul mayor in 2019. <\/p>\n
Both leaders hail from the Black Sea coast, and just as Erdogan used his Istanbul mayorship in the 1990s to convince voters that he can run Turkey well, \u201cImamoglu has created the same brand,\u201d he said. \u201cThis was too much a threat for Erdogan and he decided to nip it in the bud.\u201d <\/p>\n
Imamoglu is on a trajectory to one day lead the country. Some polls had said that if he ran for president against Erdogan, Imamoglu would secure more votes. <\/p>\n
\u201cImamoglu is extremely popular,\u201d Somer said adding that Imamoglu has been particularly skilled at drawing support, even from traditionally pro-Erdogan camps. <\/p>\n
\u201cThis is of course extremely threatening to Erdogan,\u201d Somer said. <\/p>\n
His arrest came just days before the CHP was scheduled to hold a primary election, where Imamoglu was expected to be chosen as its presidential candidate for the next round of presidential polls. <\/p>\n
It also comes after Istanbul University said on Tuesday it had annulled Imamoglu\u2019s degree over irregularities. Candidates must hold a university degree to run for president in Turkey. <\/p>\n
In response to his arrest, the CHP called for protests by the party\u2019s headquarters and provincial offices across the country. The CHP\u2019s leader, Ozgur Ozel, called Imamoglu\u2019s detention \u201ca coup attempt against our next president.\u201d <\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Erdogan\u2019s allies have defended the crackdown. <\/p>\n
Erdogan\u2019s ally and leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Devlet Bahceli, rejected calling Imamoglu\u2019s detention a coup, adding that calling to the streets in protest of his arrest is \u201cpolitical corruption that has gone mad and lost its level of reason and morality.\u201d <\/p>\n
Bahceli also insisted that the Turkish judiciary is \u201cindependent, impartial and objective.\u201d <\/p>\n
Experts say that Erdogan is likely trying to extend his rule into a third term. <\/p>\n
According to the constitution presidents are only allowed to run for two terms. To circumvent this rule, Erdogan will have to either amend the constitution or call early elections. <\/p>\n
To change the constitution, Erdogan will need the support of the CHP, the second largest party in Turkey\u2019s Grand National Assembly after Erdogan\u2019s AK Party, boasting more than 130 members of parliament. The AK Party has more than 270 seats. A constitutional amendment requires a vote of two-thirds majority in parliament. <\/p>\n
Erdogan previously amended the constitution in a 2017 referendum that transformed Turkey\u2019s parliamentary system into a powerful executive presidency, granting Erdogan sweeping powers. <\/p>\n
The president may also call early elections, which would grant him at least another five years of rule, as his second term would be incomplete. In order to actually run for president in early elections, parliament will have to make the call, according to Article 116 of the constitution. <\/p>\n
But any election that includes the opposition with Imamoglu as its head risks seeing Erdogan\u2019s defeated, experts say. <\/p>\n
\u201cIf they allow the opposition to fully participate in the elections, they will lose. They realize that,\u201d Somer said, adding that Erdogan is likely seeking to eliminate the opposition before calling early elections and changing the constitution, which Somer said Erdogan has been preparing for by co-opting politicians to back the idea. <\/p>\n
Captagay said that Erdogan may, however, miscalculate, as \u201carresting your top opponent never works out well.\u201d <\/p>\n
Erdogan was himself arrested in 1999 by the then-secular regime. He later went on to win massive popularity. <\/p>\n
\u201cImamoglu\u2019s arrest might increase sympathies for him and can frame him as a nationally known political hero, just as Erdogan\u2019s arrest did for him in 1999,\u201d Captagay said, adding that Erdogan may have inadvertently bolstered his political nemesis. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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