There were likely as many groans as laughs across Canada when comedian Mike Myers hovered over the hockey boards in a campaign ad with Prime Minister Mark Carney, his \u201celbows up\u201d battle cry on display as the country of his birth takes on the country he calls home. <\/p>\n
The Liberal Party ad played up many trite but true Canadian stereotypes and jokes that are not going to cut it during this sobering election campaign. <\/p>\n
US President Donald Trump will obviously not be on the ballot in Canada \u2013 but how each candidate proposes to deal with him is. \u201cStanding strong,\u201d \u201celbows up,\u201d these are mantras all Canadian politicians have adopted, but how they deal with Canadians\u2019 expectations and an economy facing the threat of a trade war with its largest trading partner is the contest that will matter. <\/p>\n
Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has repeatedly threatened to annex Canada and wreck its economy with tariffs, mockingly referring to the US\u2019 northern neighbor as \u201cthe 51st state.\u201d <\/p>\n
Carney describes the danger posed by Trump as existential, saying at his campaign kickoff that the US president wants to \u201cbreak us so America can own us.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m asking Canadians for a strong, positive mandate to deal with President Trump and to build a new Canadian economy that works for everyone because I know we need change, big change, positive change,\u201d added Carney Sunday, as he began a five-week campaign that will end with a national vote on April 28. <\/p>\n
His Conservative Party challenger, Pierre Poilievre, sounds near identical in his tone. <\/p>\n
\u201cI will insist the president recognize the independence and sovereignty of Canada, I will insist that he stop tariffing our nation, and at the same time I will strengthen our country so that we can be capable of standing on our own two feet and standing up to the Americans where and when necessary,\u201d said Poilievre in his first campaign speech Sunday. <\/p>\n
Poilievre and Carney\u2019s parties are virtually tied heading into this campaign and how they calibrate their response to Trump for voters, many of whom are equally enraged and terrified by the US leader\u2019s threats, will likely decide this election. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe are over the shock of that betrayal, and it is a betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons,\u201d Carney has repeatedly said in speeches without, so far, leveling with Canadians about what those lessons should be. <\/p>\n
Canada\u2019s economy is not in fighting shape. The \u201celbows up\u201d slogan might get voters\u2019 hearts racing, but Canadians need to roll up their sleeves if they\u2019re to survive America\u2019s economic blows. <\/p>\n
For years economists have sounded the alarm over Canada\u2019s low productivity, a key weakness that makes it even more vulnerable during a trade war. <\/p>\n
Carolyn Rogers, a senior deputy governor at the Bank of Canada called it a \u201cbreak the glass\u201d emergency last year, adding that in the past four decades, Canadian productivity has fallen significantly, especially when compared to the United States. <\/p>\n
\u201cLabour productivity measures how much an economy produces per hour of work. Increasing productivity means finding ways for people to create more value during the time they\u2019re at work,\u201d she wrote, adding that it\u2019s a way inoculate the economy against challenges like inflation. <\/p>\n
A TD Economics report in May 2024 put it succinctly, observing that Canada\u2019s economy has struggled to find ways to boost the productivity of workers. <\/p>\n
Even for a former central banker like Carney, or a resource-booster like Poilievre, there is no quick fix. Canadians are in danger of a significant decline in their standard of living if they do not begin to mitigate the impact of a \u201cdecoupling\u201d from the US. <\/p>\n
The United Kingdom and Europe are going through a similar reckoning, and the leaders of Britain, France, and Germany have, if tentatively, opened a dialogue with their citizens making it clear that a detachment from the US may mean cuts to social programs, increased deficit financing or both. <\/p>\n
It is unlikely that language will find its way into Canadian stump speeches over the next several weeks, but it ought to. <\/p>\n
In just 10 days as prime minister, Carney has announced tax cuts to income, energy, and new homes. And increased spending for social programs like national dental care. <\/p>\n
Poilievre has promised his own \u201cbold and beautiful\u201d tax cuts along with new spending on the military and funding new programs like subsidizing apprenticeships for workers in the trades. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe will stare down this unprovoked threat with steely resolve because, be assured, Canadians are tough, we are hardy and we stand up for ourselves,\u201d said Poilievre at a campaign stop on Sunday evening. <\/p>\n
Even his attacks on the Liberal Party, accusing it of putting Canadians \u201cunder the thumb of the Americans,\u201d is devoid of any prescription for fixing that. <\/p>\n
Trump is a once in a lifetime foil for Canadian politicians, criticizing him and his policies is a campaign cudgel that is easy to land. <\/p>\n
That may change on April 2, the day Trump has promised to impose reciprocal tariffs on all countries, including Canada. <\/p>\n
With the potential for mass layoffs within days of that announcement and a further plunge in the value of the Canadian dollar and stock market, party leaders will need to drop the slogans when they raise those elbows and articulate a path forward. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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